Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Honduras
  • Canada
  • Costa Rica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Trinidad and Tobago

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $895,326$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{917,283.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 142.5)}}\) (asimptote \(917,283.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $89,171$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,679.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 124.2)}}\) (asimptote \(89,679.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $45,896$ on 2020-10-26

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,702,750$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,601,458.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 154.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,601,458.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $225,706$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{219,186.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 95.3)}}\) (asimptote \(219,186.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,016,589$ on 2020-10-26

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $129,751$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{132,130.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.6)}}\) (asimptote \(132,130.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,638$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,716.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,716.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,403$ on 2020-10-26

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,966$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,643.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 145.5)}}\) (asimptote \(93,643.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,633$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,715.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 134.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,715.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52,797$ on 2020-10-26

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $222,973$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{198,842.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 118.8)}}\) (asimptote \(198,842.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,026$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,192.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 56.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,192.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,847$ on 2020-10-26

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,460$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,920.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 195.9)}}\) (asimptote \(128,920.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,312$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,667.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 191.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,667.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,439$ on 2020-10-26

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $124,843$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,402.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.3)}}\) (asimptote \(127,402.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,225$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,739.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 145.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,739.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,537$ on 2020-10-26

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,894$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,305.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 137.3)}}\) (asimptote \(103,305.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,651$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,475.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 116.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,475.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,713$ on 2020-10-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 71%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 47%
Dominican Republic recovered 44%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,925$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,282.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 126.3)}}\) (asimptote \(31,282.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $953$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{923.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 125.0)}}\) (asimptote \(923.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,390$ on 2020-10-26

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,535$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,553.9}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 181.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,553.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 179.9)}}\) (asimptote \(117.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,303$ on 2020-10-26