Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $895,326$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{917,283.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 142.5)}}\) (asimptote \(917,283.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $89,171$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,679.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 124.2)}}\) (asimptote \(89,679.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $45,896$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,702,750$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,601,458.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 154.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,601,458.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $225,706$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{219,186.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 95.3)}}\) (asimptote \(219,186.3\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,016,589$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $129,751$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{132,130.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.6)}}\) (asimptote \(132,130.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,638$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,716.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,716.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,403$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $93,966$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,643.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 145.5)}}\) (asimptote \(93,643.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,633$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,715.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 134.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,715.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $52,797$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $222,973$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{198,842.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 118.8)}}\) (asimptote \(198,842.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,026$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,192.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 56.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,192.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,847$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $104,460$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,920.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 195.9)}}\) (asimptote \(128,920.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,312$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,667.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 191.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,667.4\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,439$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $124,843$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,402.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.3)}}\) (asimptote \(127,402.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,225$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,739.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 145.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,739.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,537$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $104,894$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,305.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 137.3)}}\) (asimptote \(103,305.9\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,651$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,475.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 116.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,475.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,713$ on 2020-10-26